mainefarmsforthefuture.com

Por SHARON TERLEP, SUZANNE VRANICA y SHAYNDI RAICE

General Motors Co. (GM) tiene previsto dejar de hacer publicidad en Facebook, luego de que ejecutivos de la automotriz determinaran que sus anuncios pagados tienen poco impacto en las compras de automóviles de los consumidores, dijeron fuentes al tanto del asunto.

El mayor fabricante estadounidense de autos por ventas seguirá aumentando en uso del marketing en las páginas de Facebook, en las que los vendedores pueden mostrar el contenido sin ningún costo, añadieron las fuentes.

La noticia tiene lugar en un mal momento para Facebook Inc., cuando se espera que la empresa de la red social lleve a cabo una histórica salida a bolsa. Los ejecutivos de la empresa han pasado las últimas dos semanas tratando de convencer a los inversionistas de que su negocio de publicidad la hace merecedora de una valoración de US$105.000 millones.

Consultado por la medida, el director de marketing de GM dijo que el fabricante de Detroit “está reexaminando definitivamente” su publicidad en Facebook, “aunque el contenido es eficaz e importante”. El contenido hace referencia a las páginas de Facebook que no tienen costo que muchas empresas utilizan para promocionar sus productos.

The stock market jumped 6% last week on growing hopes of an imminent economic recovery. It has risen 39% from the March lows on similar hopes. Of course, it had previously fallen nearly 60% on fears of a slump.

All these moves have one thing in common: Millions of investors have acted on the belief that share values are closely related to what will happen in the economy in the next few months and years. But are they right?

Not according to Ben Inker, director of asset allocation at contrarian fund company Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. In a recent and fascinating note (“Valuing Equities in an Economic Crisis, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying about the Economy and Love the Stock Market”), Mr. Inker persuasively argues that the next moves in the economy shouldn’t actually matter too much to investors at all.

Why? Two reasons.

First, because most of the value of shares really depends on the cash they will generate many years, even decades, ahead. The next few years are only a minuscule part of the equation. “Since stocks do not have an expiration date and dividends grow over time,” Mr. Inker argues, “the duration of stocks is extremely long. If we assume that half of the return from stocks in a given year comes from the dividends and half from the growth in dividends, most of the value of stocks comes from cash flows in the distant future.”

How distant? Using Mr. Inker’s hypothesis, it turns out that about 75% of the value of shares is actually based on dividends that will be paid more than eleven years from now. Half the value is based on dividends to be paid after 25 years, and a quarter on those to be paid after about 50 years.

In other words, when you look at the market today, three quarters of its true value is based on what companies will earn and pay out after 2020 and half is based on what they will do after 2034. So really, how much attention should you pay to next quarter’s earnings?

This is counterintuitive to most investors. Mr. Inker does not go into his math in detail, but some simple calculations may illustrate the point. Imagine, in a perfect world of smooth returns, you buy a $100 basket of shares today with a 7% earnings yield. They pay out half these annual earnings in dividends, and reinvest the rest to grow. In the first year you have a $100 investment earning $7 and paying $3.50 in dividends. In year two that’s grown to a $103.50 investment earning $7.25 and paying about $3.62 in dividends. And so it goes over time. After 10 years your investment has grown to $141 and the dividends are $4.94. By year 25 the investment is worth $236, and the dividends are $8.27. If you look out 100 years, your investment is worth a remarkable $3,119 and the dividends are $109, or more than the original purchase price.

You probably won’t hold on till then. (Your grandchildren might not, either.) But the value of that soaring income stream is built into the price we pay when we buy shares today for $100, and sell them 25 years from now for $236. Even after discounting future earnings — a dollar next year is worth slightly less than this year, and so on — these distant earnings form an incredibly large part of today’s value, simply because they are so large.

There is a second reason for not paying too much attention to the economy’s next move. No matter what happens next month or next year, sooner or later the economy will probably find its way back onto its long-term path anyway. If we now boom wildly, we’ll pay for it with weaker growth down the line. And if things are bad for a while, eventually they’ll pick up. That can be true even for devastating blows. GMO’s calculations show that by the late 1940s, Mr. Inker writes, the U.S. economy had returned to the long-term growth path “as if the Depression had never happened.” And that was even true by the late 1950s for West Germany after the devastation of the Second World War.

This sort of analysis is a useful antidote to stock market moods.

Wall Street is back on its happy pills again. At some point, maybe even soon, brokers may start urging us to pay too much for stocks on the basis of this year’s economic growth or next. Canny investors may respond: But what about 2034?

Write to Brett Arends at brett.arends@wsj.com

Thinking about buying a laptop? Think again, says WSJ’s Personal Technology Columnist Walt Mossberg in his annual spring laptop review.

If you’re thinking of buying a new laptop this spring, my advice is to think again. Unless your laptop is on its last legs and you have to move quickly, there are compelling reasons to wait until at least the summer, and probably the fall, to buy a new machine, especially if you are looking for a Windows PC, but even if you are in the market for a Mac.

That makes this annual spring buyer’s guide a bit different. People always worry that buying tech products today carries a risk of obsolescence. Most of the time, that fear is overblown. But this spring really is a bad time to buy a new laptop, because genuinely big changes are due in the coming months.

On the PC side, Microsoft

is set to introduce Windows 8, the most radical new version of Windows in years, probably in the fall. PC makers will be introducing new laptop designs to take advantage of it. While Windows 8 will work with a mouse or touch pad and a keyboard, it will be heavily oriented toward tablet-type touch-screen navigation. Many PC makers are planning convertible Windows 8 models for the holiday shopping season that can act as either tablets or regular clamshell laptops.

If you buy a traditional Windows 7 laptop now, Microsoft says it will very likely be upgradable to Windows 8, but you won’t find the new styles of laptops on store shelves now. Even if you buy one of the rare touch-screen laptops now, Microsoft says it will likely work with the touch features of Windows 8, but it may not be optimized to do a great job with the new software. Also, in my view, it is always better, especially with Windows computers, to buy a new machine if you want a new version of Windows.

On the Mac side, Apple

also is bringing out a new operating system, this summer. Called Mountain Lion, it won’t be as big a change as Windows 8, partly because Apple already has integrated a lot of touch gestures and tablet-type features into the Mac using the touch pad, and has given no indication it plans touch screens.

However, Apple is overdue for redesigned laptops, especially in its MacBook Pro line, and it is a good bet that new, possibly heavily redesigned, models will begin appearing later this year. Current Macs will likely be upgradable to Mountain Lion, but if you buy now, you’ll miss out on the likely new hardware.

There is another factor that calls for waiting. Intel,

whose processors are used by most Windows PC makers and by Apple, is on the verge of introducing a new family of chips, called Ivy Bridge, which the chip maker claims will offer much faster graphics performance without sacrificing battery life. While some Ivy Bridge laptops will be available very soon, the new chips won’t show up in large numbers of consumer laptops until around June. So, even before Windows 8 appears, many consumer laptops you buy now will be outclassed by similar machines that will be introduced this summer.

There is a silver lining. If you watch prices carefully, you may find bargains on Windows 7 laptops running the current Intel processors—which are plenty capable—as the newer models get closer. And PC makers are likely, at some point, to offer free upgrades to Windows 8.

With all of that in mind, here is a cheat sheet to choosing a laptop now, if you must. As always, these tips are for average consumers doing common tasks—email, Web browsing, social networking, general office productivity, photos, music, videos and simple games. This guide isn’t meant for corporate buyers or for serious gamers and media producers.

Tablet or laptop

Tablets can reduce your reliance on a laptop and allow you to wait to buy a new one. Tablet users often find they use their laptops less often for daily tasks like email, Web browsing, or social networking.

Price

Windows PC makers are trying to nudge up the price of their laptops, since they feel they make too little profit on them. You can buy a stripped-down Windows laptop for under $300 and an adequate model for around $500. But a well-equipped model typically runs between $600 and $900. The cheapest Mac laptop, the 11-inch MacBook Air, costs $999, and prices quickly climb to $1,200.

Windows vs. Mac

Windows 7 laptops offer more variety in styles, and often more ports and larger hard disks, at less cost. But Apple laptops are sturdy, sleek and offer better built-in software. They have excellent customer support and can even run Windows, at an extra cost.

Also, Mac users have only the rare virus to contend with, while Windows users must worry about hundreds of thousands of potential attacks. Finally, Apple’s slim, light, speedy MacBook Air, which starts at $999, is a gem. It isn’t only a great traveling machine, but it can be used as your main machine.

Ultrabooks

Nearly every PC maker now has a MacBook Air-type model called an ultrabook. I have yet to find one that is quite as good as the Air, especially on my battery tests. But I like the ultrabooks a lot, and think most consumers will, too. The main downsides to the ultrabooks are that they are relatively pricey—some top $1,000—and have less storage. Like the Air, most use fast solid-state drives instead of hard disks, and these top out at just 256 gigabytes.

Memory

Get at least 4 gigabytes of memory, or RAM, on a new Windows computer. On a Mac, you can get away with 2 gigabytes, but 4 GB is better.

Processors

Intel’s chips—even the new ones coming soon—are called the i3, i5, and i7. An i5 is fine for most consumers, and even an i3 will do. But a laptop with chips from AMD is also fine.

Graphics

Usually cheaper machines have weak graphics hardware and costlier ones have better graphics. Better graphics can make a machine faster.

Hard disks

A 500 gigabyte hard disk should be the minimum on most PCs, except bargain and very light models. As always, be wary of sales pitches and don’t buy more laptop than you need.

—Find all of Walt Mossberg’s columns and videos at the All Things Digital website, walt.allthingsd.com. Email him at mossberg@wsj.com.

A version of this article appeared April 18, 2012, on page D1 in some U.S. editions of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Permission to Procrastinate: Wait to Get A New Laptop.

Amanda Marsalis for The Wall Street Journal

SOUND MIND | Doug Aitken outside of his work space

Amanda Marsalis for The Wall Street Journal

A room in the studio

LOCATED ON A QUIET STREET in Venice, Calif., Doug Aitken’s studio is within breeze range of the ocean and walking distance of his home. His latest project, titled “Song 1″—a massive creation of video projection and sound—has been transforming the cylindrical exterior of the Smithsonian Institution’s Hirshhorn Museum in Washington, from sunset to midnight for eight weeks (it closes May 13). The blue-eyed Redondo Beach native looks like an ex-skateboarder, and his relaxed Southern California demeanor makes it easy to forget that he’s famous in every modern art scene in the world. His cross-genre creations—including video, architecture, sculpture and books—make him a difficult artist to categorize. He built a Sonic Pavilion in Brazil that records the sound of plate tectonics one year, and then created a video and performance piece on a barge in Greece the next. He’s had solo exhibitions at the Whitney and the MoMA in New York, the Georges Pompidou in Paris and the Serpentine Gallery in London, to name a few. Here, Mr. Aitken gives us a tour of his studio compound a block off Venice’s Abbot Kinney Boulevard.

My office has two buildings that function like the right and left sides of the brain. There’s a room where everything is being edited for an upcoming project, but you can pull out of that into a tranquil space to work in a different, more solitary medium. It’s an architectural unfolding of the process instead of just one chaotic structure.

I don’t really care about interruptions. I accept technology and I don’t turn things off. I’ve found a peace with fragmentation and a harmony with switching gears quickly to other things.

Doug’s Office Essentials

iStockphoto

• Gridded index cards
• Aeron chair
• MacBook Pro, iMac, iPhone
• Harman Kardon HK3380 receiver
• Ion USB turntable
• Bose speakers
• G-Drives
• HP Deskjet F4480
• Vinyl records, 45s, CDs, iTunes

My project boards seem to work very well. The images are constantly circulating and changing—different projects in different stages of incubation. It’s important to have new ideas in your peripheral vision. Some are things we’re using for reference, and some are new pieces. Some may never amount to anything, but you might find yourself in a few years gravitating toward that image again because it’s burned into your retina, and something about it builds a new trail of DNA.

I based the Hirshhorn project on a song written in the late ’20s, “I Only Have Eyes For You.” I took one song that everyone from every generation has come in contact with, whether they like it or not, and created a large-scale artwork out of it. The perfect pop song is a 20th-century creation; it’s not a sonnet, it’s not an opera, it’s something short—three and a half minutes by nature—and has this ability to travel, and to defy class and economic structures. It could be in the Philippines in a cab today.

For me, music is more of a tool than any object I hold in my hand. I’m fascinated by the structure of music. The more you get into it, the further it goes.

Every kitchen needs a sonic table. It’s a musical instrument that we can also use for meetings and meals. I designed it out of a frustration with communication. I found myself at one of these museum benefit dinners with assigned seating. I was dozing off and thinking, “These are probably fine people, I just have nothing really to say to them. But maybe if sound could take over when words fail, I could create a social space based on sound.”

Amanda Marsalis for The Wall Street Journal

Mr. Aitken’s project boards

I have a weak spot for late ’60s-early ’70s yippie paperbacks and protest manifestos. I find them at flea markets or online. One of my favorites is “Right On,” a compendium of student protests made into this 95-cent paperback with the most amazing graphics.

I’m into drinking boiled ginger right now. That’s as culinary as I get. Lately we’ve had it on the stove every day, this cauldron that everyone’s dipping into.

At work, what keeps my team going are chocolate-covered espresso beans. They are the Quaaludes of the 21st century, and the threshold of extreme chemicals here.

—Edited from an interview by Stinson Carter

A version of this article appeared May 5, 2012, on page D10 in some U.S. editions of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Doug Aitken.

How to Ask for Referrals

Referrals are a crucial way most advisers build their business. But advisers often make mistakes in trying to score introductions, some specialists in the field say.

Too often, advisers ask for referrals in a self-focused way, telling clients they “want to build their business,” says Bill Cates, the Laurel, Md.-based president of Referral Coach International. Some clients may be willing to help, but some won’t, especially if they aren’t completely satisfied with their adviser.

Instead, an adviser should start by asking a client how he or she thinks their relationship is going, what’s working and what could be improved, Mr. Cates says. If the client isn’t satisfied, it is important for the adviser to know and to address those issues. If clients are satisfied, that provides an opening for a possible referral.

Advisers are more likely to win referrals if they focus on marketing a “specialized blend” of services or skills, such as working with high-level executives on their stock options, says Stephen Wershing, a referral marketing consultant in Rochester, N.Y.

Similarly, Mr. Cates says asking a client about someone “who they know could benefit” from the adviser’s services is often too broad a request. Instead, advisers should ask clients to identify contacts in specific categories, such as anyone who just retired, received a large inheritance or recently changed jobs.

Follow-up is also crucial. Advisers should immediately call once they have a prospect’s phone number and should mark a specific date on the calendar to follow up, says Susan Hirshman, a New York-based practice-management consultant. And, she says, advisers should be sure to call the client to say thank you for the introduction.

Making Room for Younger Investors

Big brokerage firms often seek higher profits by getting their advisers to focus on wealthier clients and to shed those with investible assets of less than around $250,000.

But “while that’s a good short-term strategy, longer term they’re going to have to start thinking about how to appeal to the next generation of wealth,” says Katharine Wolf, an associate director at financial-services research firm Cerulli Associates. If firms neglect younger middle-class clients now, they risk losing out on the next generation of rich investors, she and other consultants say.

A couple of the largest securities firms are using separate programs to serve less-affluent investors. At Bank of America Corp.’s

Merrill Lynch, the Merrill Edge division is designed for customers with $50,000 to $250,000 in investible assets. Merrill Edge provides access to investment guidance in person at banking centers or through a call center, as well as an online self-directed investing platform.

Familiarizing Generation X and Y clients with Merrill’s brand through Merrill Edge gives the firm a good chance of holding on to those clients as they grow wealthier, says Alois Pirker, a research director at research and consulting firm Aite Group.

Wells Fargo

& Co., which runs Wells Fargo Advisors, also has an online trading platform, called WellsTrade, and its Client Solutions Team works with less-affluent clients over the phone.

The other largest national full-service firms, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney and UBS Wealth Management Americas, “need to take this topic very seriously and have a strategy ready in how to connect with a younger generation,” Mr. Pirker says.

A spokeswoman for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney—a joint venture of Morgan Stanley

and Citigroup Inc.

—says the firm’s financial advisers “are highly entrepreneurial, and many have business models and team structures that target younger, more mass-affluent clients.”

UBS Wealth Management Americas, a unit of UBS AG,

declined to comment.

You’re Afraid? Me Too.

Financial advisers should combat the fear that has been lingering over the markets by telling clients that advisers themselves aren’t immune to it, suggests Meir Statman, a finance professor and author who specializes in behavioral finance.

That may sound unconventional to advisers used to putting on a brave face during bad times. But by admitting their own fears, advisers actually open the door to discussion of what they can offer clients—steps that may help the clients resist acting compulsively out of fear, says Prof. Statman, who teaches at Santa Clara University.

“It kind of disarms the client who [had believed that] the adviser is saying, ‘I am smarter,’ ” says Prof. Statman. An adviser can then say, “I know that some things that seem intuitive are not; let me help you with that,” he says.

Fighting fear often involves educating investors, long before a downturn, on what to expect—and keeping expectations reasonable. For instance, some investors have concluded that diversification no longer works because international and U.S. stocks plummeted together in 2008, Prof. Statman says.

Investors need to get a more nuanced message, he says: U.S. and international stocks may move in tandem, but typically not by the same magnitude. Since you don’t know which will do best, you spread your money between them and get returns that aren’t as good as the best but not as bad as the worst.

Written by Dow Jones Newswires writers Veronica Dagher veronica.dagher@dowjones.com, Caitlin Nishcaitlin.nish@dowjones.com and Daisy Maxeydaisy.maxey@dowjones.com.

A version of this article appeared May 7, 2012, on page R10 in some U.S. editions of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: News for Brokers, Wealth Managers And Their Clients.